This is reported by RBK-Ukraine referencing the "Financial Stability Report" from NBU. Additional information comes from Kontrakty.UA.
According to NBU, the reduction in stress levels was aided by the restructuring of external state debt at the end of summer, which led to a decrease in the yield of sovereign eurobonds, while the yields on hryvnia government bonds (OVDP) also saw a slight decline.
"Since then, the greatest adverse contribution to the Financial Stress Index (FSI) has been the maintenance of a moderately high level of the currency sub-index due to significant volumes of NBU interventions in the currency market," the report states.
As per NBU data, the household behavior sub-index has gradually improved thanks to an influx of funds into accounts. The rise in prices of Ukrainian corporate bonds has enhanced the corporate securities sub-index. The banking sub-index remains at the lowest level among other sub-indices, despite a slight decrease in liquidity coverage ratios due to the National Bank's increased requirements for mandatory reserves.
The FSI reflects only the current state of affairs in the financial sector and does not indicate future risks in the short or long term.
It is worth noting that the Financial Stress Index in Ukraine sharply increased following the Russian invasion in February 2022. However, as pointed out by NBU, it was lower than during the crises of 2008 and 2014-2015.
The IMF released two scenarios for Ukraine in December. The baseline scenario suggests that the war will end in the fourth quarter of 2025. In this case, Ukraine's economy is expected to grow by 2.5-3.5% next year, with growth accelerating to 5.3% in 2026.
The negative scenario anticipates that the war will continue until mid-2026. In this scenario, a GDP decline of 2.5% is projected for 2025, followed by zero growth in 2026.