This is reported by RBK-Ukraine referencing the report "Business Expectations of Enterprises in Ukraine from the National Bank for the third quarter of 2024. This information is also provided by Kontrakty.UA.
In the second quarter of 2024, businesses anticipated inflation at 9.0%, while in the first quarter of 2024 it was projected at 11.0%, in the fourth quarter of 2023 at 11.3%, and in the third quarter of 2023 at 14.8%.
More than half (54.4%) of the surveyed respondents believe that inflation will not exceed 10.0% (compared to 62.8% in the previous survey), while 15.3% expect it to surpass 15.1%.
The most significant factor contributing to the rise in consumer prices remains the ongoing military actions (noted by 81.8% of respondents).
The influence of "tax changes" has notably increased, rising 2.5 times to 37.9%.
The impact of exchange rates and production costs has significantly intensified (with 75.4% and 68.5% of responses, respectively).
The quarterly survey was conducted from July 31 to August 28, 2024. A total of 665 enterprises from 21 regions of the country participated (excluding the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, as well as the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson regions). The survey results reflect only the opinions of the respondents—enterprise managers, and not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine.
It should be noted that, according to the State Statistics Service, consumer inflation year-on-year (y/y) accelerated to 8.6% in September 2024, up from 7.5% in August.
In July, the NBU revised its inflation forecast for 2024 to 8.5% from 8.2%. The NBU expects overall inflation in Ukraine to accelerate over the next three quarters.