Friday27 December 2024
podrobnosti.org.ua

Housing prices in 2024: which cities are rising in value and which are experiencing a decline.

The year 2024 has marked a period of adaptation for the Ukrainian real estate market in response to the realities of war and the challenges of economic instability. Although the demand for purchasing housing has decreased to 75% of pre-war levels seen in 2021, the rental segment has shown significant growth, and the "eOselya" program has played a crucial role in supporting the secondary market.
Цены на жилье в 2024 году: какие города дорожают, а какие теряют в стоимости.
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This is reported by RBK-Ukraine citing data from OLX Real Estate research. This information is also shared by Kontrakty.UA.

Current State of the Secondary Housing Market

In 2024, the demand for purchasing housing in the secondary market remained at 75% of the pre-war levels of 2021. This indicates a slow but steady recovery, especially compared to 2022, when the decline was 37%. In January-February 2024, the demand for housing even increased by 18-19% compared to the same months in 2023; however, in the following months, except for August, it decreased again.

Among the main reasons for lagging behind pre-war indicators are:

  • depopulation and migration of the population
  • decline in citizens' purchasing power
  • high level of uncertainty

Despite these factors, the "eOselya" program has managed to partially activate the market. According to research, 69% of Ukrainians are aware of this initiative, 8% have already utilized the financing, and 36% plan to do so.

Housing selection criteria are also changing due to the war. In addition to traditional parameters (price, area, district), Ukrainians are increasingly paying attention to the floor level, housing autonomy, availability of shelters, and other safety conditions.

Housing Prices in the Secondary Market

In 2024, housing prices increased in most regions of Ukraine, especially in the western and central areas. The highest growth was observed in Rivne, Lutsk, Zhytomyr, and Ivano-Frankivsk. For instance, the median price of one-bedroom apartments in these cities rose by 17-29%.

At the same time, prices in dollars in cities close to the front continued to decline:

  • Kherson (-21%)
  • Zaporizhzhia (-16%)
  • Kharkiv (-14%)

Houses in the secondary market also became more expensive in most regions. For example, in Ivano-Frankivsk, the price increase was 46%, while in Ternopil it was 24%. However, in Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, prices fell by 5-15%.

Increasing Demand for Rental Housing in Ukraine

The year 2024 has become a year of active recovery in the rental segment. The demand for long-term rentals increased by 8.4%, surpassing even the pre-war figures of 2021. A notable increase in demand was observed in August, when students and families with children were preparing for the academic year.

However, the number of listings for long-term rentals decreased by 11%, which led to a significant rise in prices:

  • one-bedroom apartments – prices increased by 18-24%, with a median price of 12,000 hryvnias
  • two-bedroom apartments – the highest increase was in Sumy (+60%), Uzhhorod (+25%), Kyiv (+50%).
  • three-bedroom apartments – in Kyiv, the median price reached 50,000 hryvnias (+39%).

Key criteria for choosing rental housing have become: price, proximity to work or transport, and autonomy in case of power outages.

Daily Rental Housing in 2024

The demand for daily rentals increased by 19.3%, with peak values occurring during the summer months. In Odesa, June 2024 became a record month with a 285% increase in demand compared to 2023, despite the threat of shelling.

The cost of daily rentals rose by 6% for apartments and by 20% for houses. The highest price increases were noted in frontline cities (Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy).

Expectations for the Housing Market in 2025

Analysts from OLX Real Estate predict that in 2025, the Ukrainian real estate market will show gradual recovery with moderate growth in demand and prices, especially in the rental and new construction segments.

In the housing buying and selling market, no significant changes in prices in dollars are expected, although adjustments may occur due to changes in transaction taxation. The "eOselya" program will continue to support this segment, but expanding its scope to housing up to three years old may significantly redirect demand to the primary market.

Buyers will still prefer ready-to-move-in apartments or properties that are at the final stage of construction to settle in faster.

The rising costs of building materials and labor shortages will continue to put pressure on new construction prices. The most significant price increases are expected in Kyiv and Lviv – cities with high migration and investor interest.

The long-term rental market will remain a driver of real estate. Against the backdrop of population migration to safer regions and overall uncertainty that forces many to postpone housing purchases, the demand for rentals will continue to grow.

Rental prices, especially in the western and central regions, will also rise due to shrinking supply. At the same time, some sellers who do not find buyers may turn their properties into rental listings, partially compensating for the deficit.

Demand for daily rentals will grow, especially in the summer, due to the development of domestic tourism, business trips, and family reunions that bring together families separated by war.

The main factors influencing the market will include:

  • security level in regions
  • stability of the energy system
  • state of the economy and citizens' purchasing power
  • investor confidence and the situation at the front

Earlier, RBK-Ukraine reported that by the end of the year, demand for real estate in Ukraine returned to levels seen before the full-scale war. In the western regions, housing prices have already approached capital levels.

Significant population migration due to hostilities stimulates demand for housing in the western part of the country, while in the eastern and southern regions, the market remains virtually frozen. Despite economic uncertainty, high building material costs, and inflation, the real estate market has not only adapted to challenging conditions but also demonstrates profitability in the third year of the war.

We also wrote about whether Ukrainians plan to rent housing during the Christmas and New Year holidays and why those who want to spend the holidays away from home prefer certain options.