Even before the full-scale invasion of Russia into Ukraine, which began three years ago, airlines like Ryanair and Wizz Air were actively expanding their routes within the country. The Ukrainian market was one of the most promising for budget carriers, and they quickly increased their presence in the country following the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, as diplomatic pressure rises to find ways to end the war, airlines are once again competing for the opportunity to be the first to resume flights to Ukraine. TSN reports. This is also covered by Kontrakty.UA.
This is reported by Bloomberg.
Who will capture a larger share of Ukraine's aviation market?
The CEO of Wizz Air, József Váradi, stated that the company aims to capture 40% of the Ukrainian market by utilizing 50 new Airbus aircraft that it plans to receive within the year.
"Ukraine will be one of the biggest opportunities for growth, and we are ready to deploy our capacities," he noted.
Ryanair and Air Baltic are also considering plans to resume flights immediately after the airspace is reopened. Ryanair announced that once restrictions are lifted, they will begin selling tickets, with flights starting six weeks after air travel resumes.
Will airlines be able to quickly resume flights?
According to Goodbody Aviation, in 2019, Wizz Air controlled 13% of Ukraine's aviation market, Ryanair held 7%, while the leader was "Ukraine International Airlines" (UIA), which had nearly 40% market share.
However, UIA, which halted most operations due to the war, will require significant time to recover. Therefore, European airlines may capture a larger portion of the market by quickly positioning aircraft and crews.
Analyst Dudley Shenley from Goodbody estimates that Wizz Air and Ryanair could add about 1 million seats across their planes within just six months after flights resume.
Nonetheless, both companies are facing a shortage of aircraft. Wizz Air is experiencing technical issues with engines, while Ryanair is awaiting new Boeing deliveries.
If the war ends, airlines are ready to invest in Ukraine
Wizz Air has already prepared a development plan for Ukraine, which includes deploying 40 new aircraft and opening 150 routes over the next three years. The company expects its annual capacity to rise to 15 million passengers, matching the scale of the markets in Poland and Romania.
Air Baltic has also confirmed its intentions to return to Ukraine by reallocating some of its aircraft from other routes.
Ukraine is preparing to resume air travel after nearly three years of complete airspace closure. One of the key challenges will be restoring air traffic management systems. According to "Ukrairtraffic," employees are already undergoing training courses in preparation for the moment the skies open.
Boryspil Airport continues to maintain its infrastructure in working order: staff are receiving salaries, and technical services are regularly maintaining equipment, including escalators and baggage belts.
At the same time, after the conflict ends, demand for commercial and cargo air transport is expected to be limited, and the industry will need time to recover.
"Every day we prepare for the possible start of operations," noted Serhiy Khizhnyak, the director of commerce and strategy at Boryspil Airport. "We must be ready."
It is worth reminding that earlier the management of the international Boryspil Airport in Budapest held negotiations with representatives of the European low-cost airline Wizz Air regarding the prompt launch of air transport after the airspace is opened.