This is reported by RBC-Ukraine referencing the IMF Memorandum with Ukraine. The information comes from Kontrakty.UA.
As noted by the fund's experts, Russia's war in Ukraine continues to cause immense humanitarian losses. Airstrikes, particularly those utilizing drones, have intensified in recent months. The Black Sea shipping routes remain open despite recent attacks on cargo vessels.
"As we approach the third anniversary of the Russian invasion, the humanitarian consequences remain staggering: available data indicate that 6.75 million refugees are already outside Ukraine, alongside recent signs of increasing external migration; nearly 4 million internally displaced persons; almost 12,000 killed and nearly 26,000 wounded civilians," the document states.
According to the IMF, more than a quarter of Ukraine's population has been displaced - either as refugees or internally. Various surveys indicate that most migrants abroad still plan to return to Ukraine as soon as safety, economic conditions, and housing improve. However, their proportion is decreasing, reflecting the further adaptation of migrants to their host countries, which poses a risk of labor shortages for post-war recovery.
Moreover, some reports suggest that new issues with energy generation may lead to a temporary increase in the number of refugees to Europe, as mentioned in the Memorandum.
The document emphasizes that despite the extremely challenging conditions arising from the war, Ukraine's economy has shown remarkable resilience, growing by 4.2% in the first 10 months of 2024, and is expected to maintain growth at around 4% by the end of the year.
According to the IMF, the economy could recover faster, especially if the security situation improves sooner than anticipated.
"At the same time, risks remain exceptionally high - Russia's military escalation in November-December is inconsistent with public calls for peace negotiations and leads to greater suffering for people, more damage and losses for businesses, as well as additional pressure on budget expenditures and increased financing needs," the Memorandum states.
Recall that Vladimir Putin stated on December 19: "We are always ready for negotiations and compromises. It is just that the opposing side has refused negotiations."
The IMF's baseline scenario suggests that Russia's war with Ukraine will end by the end of 2025.