This is discussed in the RBC-Ukraine article "NBU has once again raised the discount rate: how will this affect inflation and the economy of Ukraine". This is reported by Kontakty.UA.
Taras Kozak, President of the investment group "UNIVER," notes that this tool has shown some effectiveness during previous inflation spikes.
In his opinion, given that prices increased by 12% last year, raising the discount rate seems justified.
However, the expert adds that the main causes of inflation in Ukraine are not solely monetary factors.
"Primarily, inflation is influenced by the rising costs of consumer goods, particularly food products and vegetables," he said.
According to him, an important factor is also the increase in wages. Competition for labor forces employers to raise salaries to attract workers.
"Additionally, issues with energy supply complicate production processes, which also contributes to price increases," Kozak added.
At the same time, Deputy Director of the National Institute for Strategic Studies Yaroslav Zhalilo believes that the problem with these measures is that the NBU is raising the rate under the influence of last year’s double-digit inflation. He stated that the impact of this increase on future inflation may not be significant.
"We are currently dealing with cost-push inflation, meaning prices are rising due to increased costs. This is significantly influenced by the war, which leads to additional expenses related to its aftermath. From business recovery and construction to issues with electricity supply, which forces many companies to use generators or other alternative energy sources. As a result, production and maintenance costs are rising," Zhalilo said.
Recall that the NBU decided to raise the discount rate from 13.5% to 14.5% per annum starting January 24, 2025. As stated by NBU Chairman Andriy Pyshnyy, the decision was made to maintain the stability of the currency market, preserve controlled expectations, and gradually bring inflation down to the target of 5%.