Read about which currency is best to hold funds in during this year in the overview by journalist RBK-Ukraine Alik Sakhn. This information is reported by Kontrakty.UA.
On January 9, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) once again increased the dollar exchange rate to the hryvnia. The dollar has reached its fifth consecutive historical maximum – at 42.28 hryvnias/dollar.
The European currency is still far from the peak levels it achieved last autumn – 43.55 hryvnias/euro. However, this could change in the near future.
Advantages of investing in the US dollar
Financial analyst Andriy Shevchishin recommends investing in the US dollar in the short term, and later in euros. He believes that the dollar will be more appealing in the first half of the year, while the euro may become more interesting in the second half, depending on how the situation develops in the country.
"For the first half of the year and the coming months, I would recommend investing in dollars. It looks more attractive than euros, as the euro is currently under pressure. I believe that the active phase of the war in Ukraine will end in the first half of this year. Therefore, based on this scenario, we can say that the euro will be under pressure for most of the semester. Once it becomes clear that we are moving towards negotiations, a ceasefire, or peace agreements, the euro will begin to rebound against the dollar," the expert asserts.
Shevchishin adds that the hryvnia will be weak in the first half of the year, but stabilization is possible in the second half, provided there is a good harvest and activity in the agricultural sector. However, a weakening of the hryvnia may begin again in the autumn, although it will not be as pronounced as in the first half of the year.
"Regarding investments: in the first three months of 2025, it will be the dollar. After that, as Ukraine moves towards negotiations, Europe will experience economic revival. This will support the euro in the second half of the year, and then the euro may become more attractive than the dollar. At the same time, the hryvnia will weaken in all scenarios. But it will be necessary to monitor the situation," says the financial analyst.
He also clarifies that if the war continues until 2026, it will affect the euro, which will remain under pressure, and the dollar will dominate the euro throughout the year.
"The forecast for the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar suggests that it may reach 43-44 hryvnias per dollar and stabilize at around 45 by summer. By the end of the year, the rate could rise to 47 hryvnias per dollar. As for the euro, it is expected that the rate will fluctuate around 45 hryvnias, but with potential for correction to 1.05 or even 1.01 per dollar," predicts Andriy Shevchishin.
Financial analyst of the ICU group Mykhailo Demkiv, in a comment to RBK-Ukraine, suggests that the dollar will strengthen against most currencies in the world, including the euro, in 2025. According to him, we may even see parity between these two most popular currencies in the world during the year.
"In 2025, the US Federal Reserve will be cautious in lowering rates. At the same time, the new US President Donald Trump will pursue policies that could lead to somewhat higher inflation and relatively high rates in the economy. The latter attracts investors, which is why we are witnessing a rise in the dollar exchange rate. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is consistently lowering rates, causing the euro to weaken against the dollar," the expert notes.
According to him, given this situation, which will last for some time, investing in dollars in 2025 looks more attractive than in euros.
Why to invest in euros
At the same time, the investment director of Capital Times, Artem Shcherbina, has a different opinion. In a comment to RBK-Ukraine, Shcherbina predicts a repetition of the policies of the 47th US President Donald Trump regarding the dollar, which he implemented during his first term eight years ago.
"Right now, it seems to me that a situation similar to what was forming before Trump's inauguration in his first term in 2017 is emerging. Back then, everyone talked about the weakness of the euro and that Trump would come and the dollar would be super strong. But it turned out that in the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump immediately stated that he was against a strong dollar. As a result, the dollar showed the worst dynamics in its first year of presidency in the last 20 years. That is, all currencies grew except the dollar," emphasizes Artem Shcherbina.
He adds that Trump seems dissatisfied with the high interest rate in the US relative to the EU. Therefore, according to Shcherbina, if the US Federal Reserve decides to lower it, this will lead to a decline in the yield of dollar-denominated assets, which will directly affect the strength of the dollar.
The expert predicts that this year the euro may exceed the psychological mark of 50 hryvnias. Regarding the dollar, Shcherbina believes that its average exchange rate throughout 2025 will not exceed 44 hryvnias. However, by the end of the year, he expects further weakening of the hryvnia to a level of 46 per US dollar. This forecast is based on the assumption that the war may continue throughout the year.
"Of course, there is a possibility of ending the war this year, and much depends on the policies of our international partners. Therefore, economic trends in 2025 are likely to be similar to those we observed in 2024. However, the economy will no longer grow at a rate of 4-5%, as at the beginning of last year," emphasizes the investment director of Capital Times.
He also adds that the 2025 financial year will be relatively stable and predictable. However, according to Shcherbina, in 2026, financial aid to Ukraine is likely to decrease significantly, which will cause greater fluctuations in the exchange rate of the national currency.
According to the published forecast of the IMF, the average annual exchange rate in 2025 will be 45 hryvnias/dollar. The head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Andriy Pyshny, noted that the dollar exchange rate in 2025 "will not skyrocket". According to him, an important factor for the stability of the Ukrainian currency will be the gold and foreign exchange reserves, which should amount to about 41 billion dollars by the end of 2025.
We also remind about investments in military bonds. How to buy OVDP and how much you can earn on this, read in our article at this link.