This opinion was expressed in a comment to RBK-Ukraine by the president of the Globalization Center "Strategy XXI," Mykhailo Gonchar. This was reported by Contracts.UA.
"In principle, the situation appears quite realistic. Saudi Arabia may support the idea, but it won't be a response to a call. They mentioned this as far back as last year," Gonchar noted.
According to him, last autumn, Saudi Arabia announced the possibility of lowering oil prices to $50 if OPEC+ member countries do not adhere to production limitation agreements. At that time, there were complaints in Riyadh regarding Russia, Kazakhstan, and Iraq for not complying with production quota conditions.
However, as the expert pointed out, there may be counter-demands from Riyadh.
"Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman currently has a good opportunity to agree to the proposal but to set his own terms. The Saudis have their own interests, which are not new, and this is what they wanted from the Biden administration but did not receive. They are looking for real security guarantees to deal with the Iranian Houthis. Since Biden took office, the U.S. has only sent the Saudis to the negotiating table," he explained.
He noted that Trump understands well what the Saudis want, but on the other hand, he is not willing to take on obligations without anything in return.
"Thus, it was stated that Saudi investments in the U.S. would be welcomed. I believe negotiations will take place soon, or perhaps they are already ongoing, and I think there could be some success here," Gonchar believes.
At the same time, he emphasized that high oil prices benefit oil companies—both American and Saudi.
"For Americans, considering that shale production dominates, a price of $50 is close to critical, and there is no sense in letting prices fall further. The Saudis can continue to lower prices because their production costs are lower," the expert pointed out.
However, the main question, in his view, is not so much about the price itself but how long it will remain stable.
"What matters is not just the lower price point, but that it remains sustained, as this will impact the revenues of the Putin regime and, accordingly, the funding of the war budget. It's currently difficult to predict, but I believe that regardless of Trump's promises and the Saudis' statements, the situation will develop along this trend. I think we will see results by summer," Gonchar added.
At the same time, he pointed out that $50 is not a "killer price for oil for the Russian Federation. Moreover, a low oil price is favorable for China.
"Here, the Americans will manage prices very carefully to avoid harming themselves and not allow the Chinese economy to rise further," the expert emphasized.
Trump Calls for Lowering the Price of Russian Oil
Recall that yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower the price of Russian oil. In his opinion, this would help to end Russia's war against Ukraine more quickly.
Ukraine, for its part, proposes to set a price cap on Russian oil at $30 per barrel. As noted by the Office of the President of Ukraine, this would result in a collapse of Russia's capacity to finance the war.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia's Minister of Economy Faisal Alibraheem, when asked if Saudi Arabia would lower oil prices, responded that Riyadh is focused on the long-term stability of the oil market.