This was stated by the Deputy Head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Serhiy Nikolaychuk, as reported by RBK-Ukraine referencing his interview. This information is also reported by Kontrakty.UA.
Nikolaychuk noted that we currently have data for the first 11 months: in November, inflation accelerated to 11.2% over the past 12 months.
"Such acceleration in the second half of the year was anticipated primarily due to expectations of rising prices for food products due to less favorable weather conditions. The harvest of many agricultural crops this year was lower than last year. At the same time, the consequences turned out to be even greater than we had expected," he said.
According to him, factors related to the increase in production costs contributed to this, both due to a sharp rise in wages and additional expenses incurred by enterprises to maintain their operations under energy terror from Russia.
"Last year we had a five percent inflation rate which coincided with the inflation target (5.5%, - ed.). If last year we were fortunate with weather conditions and achieved record yields for many crops, then this year, unfortunately, the situation reversed and for a number of agricultural crops we had quite low yields, which reflected accordingly in the prices of the respective products," the Deputy Head of the National Bank reported.
NBU Forecast for 2025
Nikolaychuk stated that the current NBU forecast anticipates that inflation will peak in the spring of next year, after which it will reverse and begin a downward trend.
"By the end of next year, we expect inflation to be around 7% and to reach our target of 5% by 2026."
He mentioned that these forecasts are primarily based on expectations of better crop yields for agricultural products.
"We do not believe that we will face unfavorable weather conditions for the second consecutive year. Additionally, we expect that the pressure on prices from production costs, related to labor payments and enterprise expenses for ensuring energy efficiency, will decrease. Of course, we also incorporate into our forecasts the resilience of the currency market and measures from monetary policy aimed at achieving our inflation targets," he added.
Recall that according to the State Statistics Service, consumer prices in Ukraine in November 2024 increased by 1.9%. Annual inflation accelerated to 11.2%. The only time annual inflation was higher was in July 2023, at 11.3%.