The head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), Andriy Pyshny, made this statement, as reported by RBK-Ukraine citing a briefing on Youtube. This information is also reported by Kontrakty.UA.
Additionally, the NBU forecasts inflation at 5.0% for 2026 (the previous forecast was also 5.0%), with inflation expected to remain at 5.0% in 2027.
As noted by the NBU chairman, inflation accelerated to 12% year-on-year in December 2024, exceeding the NBU's prior forecast. According to the NBU's estimates, the acceleration of inflation continued into January.
He stated that the high rates of consumer price growth were largely driven by temporary factors, primarily related to the effects of poorer harvests from the previous year. At the same time, fundamental price pressures were also intensifying.
"In the first months of 2025, inflation is likely to continue rising due to the ongoing influence of both temporary factors, including the effects of lower harvests from last year, and fundamental factors, particularly the pressure from business production costs," he said.
According to the NBU's estimates, inflation will peak in the second quarter and begin to decline from the middle of the year.
"It is expected that by the end of 2025, inflation will slow to 8.4%, and in 2026 to the target of 5%. This will be supported by measures of interest and exchange rate policy from the National Bank, as well as higher harvests, improvements in the energy sector, a reduction in the fiscal deficit, and moderate external price pressure," he said.
Inflation in Ukraine
Recall that according to the State Statistics Service, the annual inflation in Ukraine in December 2024 was 12.0%.
As noted in a column for RBK-Ukraine by Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, Director of the Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis Department of the NBU, the annual inflation rate will accelerate until April-May 2025 due to base effects, after which it will begin to slow down.