This is reported by RBK-Ukraine citing the "Inflation Report" from the National Bank of Ukraine (January 2025). This information is also shared by Kontrakty.UA.
According to the NBU, the rise in fuel prices continued to slow down in the fourth quarter of 2024 - to 4.8% year-on-year in December (down from 6.0% year-on-year in September), which was lower than anticipated.
The increase in excise taxes on fuel in September primarily affected the price of liquefied gas. The latter also rose due to increasing raw material costs and heightened demand in Europe, particularly due to the embargo on imports from the Russian Federation starting December 20, as stated in the report.
"At the same time, the predominantly downward trend in global oil prices and restrained demand against the backdrop of sufficient stocks accumulated by importers and gas station networks prior to the first phase of excise tax increases limited the rise in prices for gasoline and diesel," the NBU noted.
In addition to raw material costs and exchange rate dynamics, changes in tax legislation and marketing strategies to attract customers also influenced fuel prices. Towards the end of the year, fuel imports increased to accumulate sufficient stocks ahead of the next phase of excise tax hikes starting in early 2025, which is expected to somewhat curb the rise in fuel prices in the coming months; however, this effect will be short-lived, according to the NBU.
"As stocks are depleted in light of the approved excise tax increases, the pace of fuel price growth will accelerate to over 13% this year," the review states. Due to its impact on production costs, this will further pressure the prices of certain goods and transportation services.
Meanwhile, in the medium term, the decline in global oil prices will partially offset the further increase in excise tax burdens. As a result, the rise in fuel prices is expected to slow significantly, according to the NBU.
Recall that excise taxes on fuel in Ukraine were increased on September 1, 2024. This was the first phase of tax increases. Excise taxes rose again on January 1, 2025. This led to higher prices at gas stations.