Wednesday12 February 2025
podrobnosti.org.ua

The NBU has revised its growth forecast for Ukraine's economy downward for the next two years.

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) forecasts a 3.6% increase in the country's real gross domestic product (GDP) for 2025. This prediction has been revised downward compared to last October's estimate of 4.3%.
НБУ ухудшил прогноз роста экономики Украины на ближайшие два года.

This was announced by the head of the NBU, Andriy Pyshny, as reported by RBK-Ukraine referencing a briefing on Youtube. This information is also shared by Kontrakty.UA.

According to the NBU's forecast, in 2026, the economy is expected to grow by 4.0% (previous forecast - 4.6%), and in 2027, GDP will increase by 4.2%.

"Taking into account security risks and the challenging labor market situation, the NBU has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3.6%," he stated.

At the same time, he noted that the NBU's baseline scenario still anticipates a gradual return of the economy to normal functioning conditions.

"Accordingly, a moderate acceleration of economic growth is expected in 2026-2027 - to around 4%," said the head of the NBU.

Pyshny mentioned that on one hand, the consequences of the war, which have impacted the labor shortage and the lack of production capital, will continue to restrict the economy. On the other hand, recovery will be supported by investments in energy and production capacities, a relatively soft fiscal policy, and an increase in private consumption amid rising income levels.

According to NBU estimates, in 2024, Ukraine's real GDP is projected to grow by 3.4%, which is lower than the NBU's October forecast.

"The pace of economic growth has slowed compared to 2023. This is explained not only by poorer harvests and somewhat weaker external demand than expected, but also by the realization of risks associated with increased intensity of hostilities, intensified air attacks by Russia, and the resulting electricity shortages. The persistence of high security risks has also hindered the return of migrants and led to a significant labor shortage," Pyshny added.

It should be noted that the Ukrainian government has significantly downgraded its economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.7%, down from an earlier expectation of 6.8% growth.

Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund has revised its growth forecast for Ukraine's economy for 2024 due to the impact of Russian strikes on energy infrastructure. It is expected that Ukraine's GDP will grow by 3.0% in 2024, which is below the April forecast (3.2%).

The IMF anticipates that the war will continue until the end of 2025. The forecast for 2025 has been lowered to 2.5% from 6.5%. Growth is expected to accelerate only in 2026 - to 5.3% (previously expected growth was 5.0%).