This is reported by RBK-Ukraine, referencing the "Inflation Report" from the National Bank of Ukraine (January 2025). This information comes from Kontrakty.UA.
"A gradual increase in excise taxes and utility tariffs is anticipated; however, the timing and parameters for adjusting the latter remain uncertain, posing a risk to the inflation forecast," the review states.
The forecast is based on the assumption that certain utility service tariffs (gas, heating, and hot water supply) will remain unchanged throughout 2025.
However, the challenging situation in the energy sector and the state budget may necessitate tariff adjustments in the coming years. "It is expected that from 2026, a gradual alignment of tariffs to economically justified levels may begin," the document notes.
According to the NBU, uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of adjustments to energy tariffs constitutes a specific risk for the inflation forecast. A significant rise in energy prices to quickly eliminate imbalances in the energy sector will intensify inflationary pressure and necessitate increased subsidies for the population.
"On the other hand, prolonged delays in decisions regarding the alignment of utility service tariffs to economically justified levels will lead to lower inflation rates, but will accumulate quasi-fiscal imbalances and worsen the financial condition of state energy companies. This will create additional risks for the sector's investment potential, intensify instability risks in the energy market, and price pressures will only be deferred to the future," the NBU added.
Partial Moratorium
It should be noted that a moratorium on raising tariffs for gas, hot water, and heating is in effect in Ukraine; however, it does not apply to electricity and cold water.
As a result, average prices for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other types of fuel in Ukraine increased by 18.9% in December 2024 compared to December of the previous year. This increase was driven by rising electricity prices.