This is evidenced by data from a study conducted by the Korean branch of the German Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom, published on October 28, as reported by Ukrinform.
According to the analysis, "the value of arms supplies today amounts to up to $5.5 billion."
Moreover, analysts added that "even by the most conservative estimates, the value of supplies exceeds $1.7 billion." In any case, North Korea can significantly increase its revenues through cooperation with Russia. South Korea estimates the total economy of its northern neighbor at only $23.7 billion.
It is noted that North Korea's income could rise by hundreds of millions of dollars if reports about the deployment of North Korean troops to Ukraine are confirmed.
Given previous instances of sending North Korean troops to Syria or Angola and the assessment of available information, researchers consider it plausible that North Korean soldiers could be involved in Russia's war against Ukraine.
“However, to avoid jeopardizing the stability of the North Korean regime and considering the risk of North Korean soldiers fleeing and limited resources, sending more than 20,000 soldiers seems unlikely,” the study states.
The authors acknowledge that it is unclear how involved the DPRK troops will be in combat operations.
The study illustrates numerically how Russia and North Korea have become increasingly close partners since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. For instance, in the first half of 2024, the volume of bilateral trade rose to $52.9 million, while for the entire year of 2023 it was around $34.4 million. This growth indicates that annual trade volumes between the two countries could return to levels seen before the tightening of sanctions in 2017.
The deepening of relations is also reflected in a noticeable increase in diplomatic visits between the two nations. Since July 2023, there have been an average of two high-level meetings per month between the two countries. There have already been 24 such meetings this year.
“Russia is turning to North Korea primarily due to its immense needs for ammunition. But there is another reason: Russia is using its relationship with North Korea — and the potential transfer of military technologies — as a means to undermine the unity of Western alliances, especially in East Asia. Thus, Russia aims to pressure countries like South Korea and Japan to reconsider their support for Ukraine,” the analysis states.
However, such a strategy has its limits: Putin can only receive outdated and unreliable military equipment from Pyongyang. Additionally, North Korea remains an unpredictable partner given its tradition of changing alliances. There is also a risk that Russia could worsen its relations with China by bolstering the power of an increasingly aggressive North Korea, the study points out. Strengthening ties with a pariah state like North Korea, particularly through the transfer of sensitive technologies, could further damage Russia's reputation on the international stage.
“Despite these challenges, the EU and its partners must take action to mitigate the risks and negative consequences of this growing cooperation. The Foundation's analysis recommends supporting like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly South Korea and Japan, by enhancing security and economic partnerships to protect them from Russia's coercive tactics,” the document states.
It also advises the European Union to refine its sanctions strategy to better monitor and more specifically prevent financial flows to Russia, especially those funding military activities and arms deals with North Korea. The EU should also intensify its diplomatic efforts with Global South countries and emphasize the detrimental impact of the Russian-North Korean partnership.
As reported by Ukrinform, earlier the National Intelligence Service of South Korea stated that the North Korean regime decided to send 12,000 troops to support Russia in the war against Ukraine.
Recently, it became known about the arrival of the first units of soldiers from the DPRK in the combat zone of the Russian-Ukrainian war, who had undergone training at eastern Russian training grounds. The presence of North Korean reinforcements has been recorded, particularly in the Kursk region.
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