Sunday03 November 2024
podrobnosti.org.ua

The business sector anticipates a boost in activity amid moderate inflation growth, according to the National Bank of Ukraine.

Businesses have slightly improved their assessments of business activity for the upcoming 12 months, maintaining positive forecasts for attracting investments amid moderate inflation and exchange rate growth.
Бизнес ожидает оживления деловой активности при умеренном росте инфляции, сообщает НБУ.
Business has slightly improved its assessments of business activity for the next 12 months, maintaining positive forecasts regarding investment attraction under conditions of moderate inflation growth and exchange rate stability.

As reported by Ukrinform, this was announced by the National Bank of Ukraine based on the results of a business survey conducted in the III quarter of 2024.

Business has slightly improved its assessments of business activity for the next 12 months, maintaining positive forecasts for attracting investments, while expecting moderate inflation and exchange rate growth,” the statement reads.

The National Bank notes that the Business Expectations Index (BEI) in the third quarter was 100.6% compared to 99.5% in the II quarter of 2024.

An increase in business activity is anticipated due to positive assessments of overall product sales volumes, investment expenditures on equipment and inventory, as well as a softening of negative evaluations regarding investment spending on construction works.

Military actions and their consequences remain the dominant factor restraining business development. The impact of tax changes, the hryvnia exchange rate against foreign currencies, and production costs has also noticeably intensified.

However, businesses have restored positive assessments of the production volumes of goods and services for the next 12 months: the balance of responses was 3.7% compared to “minus” 0.3% in the II quarter.

Expectations regarding annual inflation have worsened for the first time in eight quarters: in the III quarter of 2024, the expected annual inflation for the next 12 months was 9.7% compared to 9.0% in the previous quarter.

Expectations regarding the devaluation of the national currency have intensified: the average exchange rate respondents anticipate in 12 months is 43.72 UAH/USD (in the previous quarter – 41.61 UAH/USD). A share of 44.1% of respondents predict that the exchange rate of the hryvnia will fluctuate in the range of 42.1 – 44.0 UAH/USD over the next 12 months.

The current financial and economic state of enterprises has deteriorated: the balance of responses was “minus” 6.0% compared to “minus” 4.3% in the I quarter.

Respondents’ expectations regarding the financial and economic condition of their own enterprises for the next 12 months have weakened: the balance of responses is “minus” 0.9% (in the II quarter – “minus” 0.2%). Deterioration is expected in enterprises of the mining industry, energy and water supply, construction, transport and communication, as well as other sectors. At the same time, respondents from trade, agriculture, and manufacturing provided optimistic forecasts.

As reported, the quarterly survey was conducted from July 31 to August 28, 2024. A total of 655 enterprises from 21 regions of the country participated in the survey. Among the surveyed enterprises, 21.1% were wholesale and retail trade companies, 19.1% were from manufacturing, 14.5% from agriculture, and others.