This is highlighted in the analysis by the Institute for Economic Research (IER) and Political Consultations, as reported by Kontrakty referencing ZN.ua.
According to IER's estimates, livestock numbers are declining, and the gross added value (GAV) in agriculture has decreased by 0.9%. The advancing front has adversely affected the extractive industry, where GAV has contracted by 2.9%.
The manufacturing sector experienced a GAV increase of 3.0% due to domestic demand and favorable conditions in metallurgy.
In January 2024, the real GAV in the energy sector fell by 5.1% due to the destruction of generation facilities and emergency outages. In trade, growth slowed to 4.9%, while in transportation, it declined by 1.1% due to the halt in gas transit.
IER forecasts GDP growth of 2.9% and 3.2% for 2025 and 2026, respectively.
The NBU's forecast indicates a peak inflation rate of 14% in the first quarter, followed by a decrease to single digits by the year's end. IER's analysis also points to this figure as the inflation growth rate.
Most committee members anticipate further increases in the key interest rate, although predictions in this regard remain uncertain. The NBU has revised its real GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 3.6%.
In January and February 2025, the hryvnia strengthened, dropping from a peak of 42.3 UAH per dollar to 41.5 UAH, likely due to a seasonal decrease in demand for foreign currency, especially for import payments. This allowed the NBU to reduce currency interventions to 2.9 billion dollars by the end of February. The NBU's international reserves stood at 43 billion dollars at the end of January.
The government secured 3 billion euros from the EU, spending 536 million dollars on debt servicing, while the NBU spent 3.75 billion dollars on interventions. The NBU's reserves cover over 5 months of imports of goods and services.